Blurt Economic Indicators - 15 August 2021

in blurt •  2 months ago 

My weekly look at Blurt's economic indicators.

All rises and falls are relative to last week.

Blurt Economic Indicators

BLURT Supply = 430.5 million
Vested BLURT = 51.3% (+0.1)

Reward Pool = 2.02 million BLURT (falling)
Recent Claims = 70.8 TRshares (rising)

Vote Yield estimate (100k BP) = 53.4% APR (falling)

Author/Curation Yield lower estimate = 26.7% APR (half of the Vote Yield)

You can also see the raw numbers on a blockchain explorer.

Insights

We continue to see the economy moving in the right direction, but these are the first shoots of a recovery that needs to be nurtured.

Activity is obviously increasing, meaning more posts and votes. The one ingredient left is that new users invest something in the BLURT coin so that they can vote on their friends.

One other good sign remains that the proportion of BLURT vested has nudged up again, so this may translate into higher claims next week.

Worth a reminder that one of the key economic changes made recently is that rewards are also proportional to the Vested BLURT, so that, unlike the other Graphene chains, inviting new people who then earn and power up does NOT dilute the earnings of other users - think about that.

Are there any targets of where the Blurt yield should be? Given that the economy retains some similarities to our ancestors, I would like to see the gross yield move down from the 50% to the 30% region. Let us not forget we peaked at around 70%, so have already come off that high - forget whatever happened in the first few months after genesis as these reward pool chains show massive returns before they stabilise, not unlike liquidity pools. Having said that, I also expect that would take maybe 4 months to achieve, so is a slow and steady progress. With more activity, although the yields may fall, the returns in absolute terms may rise for many bloggers as they receive (and give) more votes.

Comparisons

As I've said before, such yields at the moment are higher than many defi swap pools - and without the danger of "impermanent losses". With BLURT coin prices being so low, this is also a good time to increase one's Blurt Power and accumulate for a future rise.

A comparison with the other Graphene chains done using the DLease delegation rates.

Steem DLease rates: max 34.1% APR (average 25.2%)(rising)
Hive DLease rates: max 13.1% APR (average 11.6%)(falling)

Those rates have always tracked the profitability of each chain and have the advantage of being one simple number.

Although Vote Yields are expressed in terms of financial returns, they are also fundamental expressions of the level of activity on each chain relative to the coin minting rate.

Hive has undergone HF25; we shall see how long it takes for users to react. Although the volatility in market prices has been reflected in its yields, we can now see that the Dlease yield is attenuating to approximately the blockchain yield.

As we don't seem to have a functioning price feed on the explorers, these price snapshots may also help users decide where to trade BLURT.

Ionomy/Probit: 6/8 sats/BLURT (approx $0.0032)
Hive-Engine: 0.006/008 HIVE/BLURT (approx $0.0032)

The HIVE market appears to be the most active and the most volatile, so these are numbers for the current price range and best conversion to USD.

As I mentioned above, the BLURT price needs to see some sustained rise. The issue is really that it isn't tracking the broader market at all. It has been around this level for some weeks. This is fine in terms of earnings, in that buying a token cheaply that has a high yield is just as good as a more expensive token with the same yield, but we need to see users investing in their future.

I hope these numbers will give members some insights into how the Blurt economic system is managed and, more importantly, how each individual user can both benefit from and affect the whole chain.

Blurt Better!


Please vote for my witness account @busbecq.
Can be done directly here.
A witness is more than a machine.
Thanks!


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Hi @rycharde,
the value of votes has dropped by about 10% lately?
Is that right?

Yeah, you see that in all the graphene chains.
The powering up is slower than the voting, so the tweak I made is hard to see, but the yield is affected by both, eg if someone bought 1 mil fresh BP then the yield would suddenly rise for all... and then slowly attenuate again.

Thank you!

Yes, the vote yield is falling - as it should with more voting.

Ok, thanks!